The Most Important Idea We Haven't Discussed Yet
not allowing them to do that kind of moving around internally and so I think when you're looking at hiring I think the organizations that I've been around at least that disrupt themselves continually instead of waiting to get disrupted Reserve at least some of their hiring for instead of saying here's a square peg for a square hole that we need tomorrow they say what is something we want that we would have trouble teaching
let's go get someone with that and
we can coach them up on the stuff we're good at so like an extreme example of
this was this
investment firm in Scotland I spent some time with bayy gford this like incredibly uh successful firm and I think they this is Extreme but someone there told me like they won't hire anybody with an MBA I think that's I don't think you should rule out things like that but anyway but what they would go is they'd say we want someone who has experience in this or that or this kind of thinking let's go get them
because we can't teach that thing and then we can coach them up on finance it's going to take them an extra few months to get going because we're gonna have to teach them but the stuff that why should we hire for exactly the stuff that we can most easily teach let's hire for the stuff we want but that we would have trouble teaching and then we can teach them on it and I think the places that
are looking to disrupt themselves
keep sort of an eye open for that kind of thing not for every hire but for some
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Can Trainability Be
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the things I really love about your
work is you always cite different studies and they're particularly fascinating
I wrote down tons of different studies from
different points that you've made
made today but are there is there a favorite study that you that surprised you
the
most or shifted your your sort of
Paradigm the most some of the the research about forecasting totally
shocked me so the most famous work
ever done on on forecasting making predictions was a
20-year uh program of research that
had people making predictions about geopolitical you know social
technological events and they had to
get they got 83,000 probability predictions
because people had to make specific
probability predictions of the likelihood of an event by a specific deadline so
like 20 20% probability of
this happening by this time correct
like that there's going to be and it would be very specific it would be a 20%
chance
that within the next 12 months there
will be a military confrontation that causes at least five casualties in the
South China Sea like it had to be
very specific so that they could say if someone was right or wrong and they
needed so many because they had to
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